Alright! So the 2015 Oscars are only a few hours away, so here are my last minute predictions and personal picks for this year's nominations. As I mentioned before, 2014 was actually a pretty good year for movies... even if a lot of the year's better offerings didn't get recognized by the Academy. Still, here are thoughts on a few of the categories.
Best Actor in a Lead Role
Steve Carell in "Foxcatcher"
Bradley Cooper in "American Sniper"
Benedict Cumberbatch in "The Imitation Game"
Michael Keaton in "Birdman"
Eddie Redmayne in "The Theory of Everything"
Let's start out with the toughest one to predict tonight shall we? Firstly... I'm still pretty ticked that David Oyelowo wasn't recognized for his performance as Martin Luther King Jr. in Selma. Not only would that have added some much needed diversity to this year's infamously white-washed nominations, but it was a damn good performance that was miles better than Bradley Cooper in the incredibly overrated American Sniper. Ugh... well, out of these nominations, it seems like it's come down to a two way race between Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. Keaton was the front-runner for the longest time, but Redmayne has been picking up awards left and right for his performance as Stephen Hawking. Tough call, but my money is still on Michael Keaton... though I could easily see this one going to Redmayne. Also, some have been predicting that Bradley Cooper might pull an upset (hopefully that won't happen).
Who Will Win: Michael Keaton (probably)
Who Should Win: For me personally... it's a two way tie between Steve Carell and Michael Keaton
Best Actress in a Lead Role
Marion Cotillard in "Two Days, One Night"
Felicity Jones in "The Theory Of Everything"
Julianne Moore in "Still Alice"
Rosamund Pike in "Gone Girl"
Reese Witherspoon in "Wild"
As I mentioned in my list for the Best Movies of 2014... Gone Girl was my favorite, and a major reason for that was because of Rosamund Pike's excellent performance, so she is the one I would prefer to see take home this award. That won't happen though, since this Oscar has had Julianne Moore's name written all over it for months now. Far and away, Moore is the only true lock in any category and easily the safest bet of the night.
Who Will Win: Julianne Moore
Who Should Win: Rosamund Pike
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert Duvall in "The Judge"
Ethan Hawke in "Boyhood"
Edward Norton in "Birdman"
Mark Ruffalo in "Foxcatcher"
J.K. Simmons in "Whiplash"
Another fairly easy one to predict, it seems like J. Jonah Jameson... or umm... JK Simmons is the likely victor for this category. There's a slight possibility Edward Norton might pull an upset, but I wouldn't count on it. Personally, I'm rooting for Simmons as well. All of these actors were actually quite solid in each of their respective roles (even if The Judge was a thuddingly subpar movie only slightly elevated by the performances of Duvall and Robert Downey Jr), but I've always been a huge fan of the extremely under-appreciated JK Simmons, so I'm thrilled he's finally receiving some well deserved Oscar recognition.
Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette in "Boyhood"
Laura Dern in "Wild"
Keira Knightly in "The Imitation Game"
Emma Stone in "Birdman"
Meryl Streep in "Into The Woods"
It'll be a huge surprise if anyone other than Patricia Arquette picks up this Oscar. Personally... I'm actually totally okay with that. I've been fairly critical toward Boyhood (generally liked the movie, but I do think it's somewhat overrated) for relying too much on it's 12 year gimmick rather than any actual filmmaking merits. Arquette, however, was the only performer in that movie to rise above the gimmicky storytelling and deliver something truly magnificent. Not only does she give the best performance in the movie, but she was the ONLY character to experience any real profound growth (physically, mentally, and emotionally) and contributed genuine character development that warranted the 12 years of filming (well, to a lesser extent, Ethan Hawke did this as well). Yes, I know everyone else in the movie obviously grew over the 12 years, but the characters themselves were fairly one note and shallow. So yeah, Patricia Arquette's Oscar, in my opinion, is well-earned.
Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette
Best Director
Wes Anderson for "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Alejandro González Iñárritu for "Birdman"
Richard Linklater for "Boyhood"
Bennett Miller for "Foxcatcher"
Mortem Taylor for "The Imitation Game"
Ummm... why is Mortem Taylor on this list while Ava Duvernay (director of Selma) is not? Yes, Duvernay was one of many unfortunate snubs in the long list of snubs for the excellent civil rights drama that is Selma. Hey Academy! Not only did you snub a great filmmaker for a great film, but you also missed a huge chance to make history. Had she been nominated, Duvernay would have been the first black woman nominated in this category. Ugh... get your shit together Oscars. At least you nominated Wes Anderson, he has been overdue for a nod in this category for a while. Though I have a feeling this award will be going to Linklater. That's... okay I guess. I really do like Richard Linklater as a filmmaker (Dazed and Confused still holds up remarkably well), but like I said before... Boyhood still just didn't do much for me. Though Iñárritu has also been rumored to be a major contender for this award as well... that's a little better anyways.
Who Will Win: Richard Linklater
Who Should Win: Wes Anderson
Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How To Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Well... this category experienced it's first major controversy. Typically, the Best Animated Film is usually one of the least discussed and most predictable categories of the night (rarely has there every been a major shock, snub or surprise when it comes to animated films). But oh boy... the fallout from the lack of The Lego Movie's nomination is still being felt today. And it should! The Lego Movie, despite being a nakedly commercial product, was a genuinely excellent movie with a memorable script, excellent animation, and top notch voice acting. The fact that a film like that turned out as well as it did is absolutely incredible. Shame on you Academy!!! Well... I actually only saw Big Hero 6 and How To Train Your Dragon 2 on this list, and it seems like the latter is probably going to win. Whatever... would prefer Big Hero 6 win, but without The Lego Movie, this category feels fairly moot this year.
Who Will Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2
Who Should Win: Big Hero 6
Best Film Editing
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Really surprised that Birdman didn't get a nomination on this list, since it seemed like a shoe-in. Well... probably not gonna matter since it seems like Boyhood's 12 years worth of footage spliced together is going to take this Oscar. That's okay I guess, though I'd prefer to see Whiplash or Grand Budapest Hotel take that honor.
Who Will Win: Boyhood
Who Should Win: Whiplash
Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Yeah... this one has got Birdman's name written all over it. The way the cinematographers captured the tracking shots that looked like one continuous take was pretty damn incredible, not gonna lie. Works for me.
Who Will Win: Birdman
Who Should Win: Birdman
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Glad to see Nightcrawler get a nomination here, would be totally okay with seeing that one win. Though personally, my favorite would be The Grand Budapest Hotel... which will probably be the case. Could easily see Boyhood or Birdman take this one though (hopefully not though).
Who Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory Of Everything
Whiplash
Ugh!!! Why wasn't Gone Girl nominated in this category??? I was sure that would be a nomination! Would have definitely been a better pick than the incredibly flawed American Sniper or the script for the mostly generic The Theory of Everything (that movie was about as formulaic as they get... it was only slightly elevated by it's two strong lead actors). At least Inherent Vice got recognized, though it seems like Whiplash will take this one... sure, that works.
Who Will Win: Whiplash
Who Should Win: Inherent Vice
Best Picture
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory Of Everything
Whiplash
Glad to see Selma AT LEAST get a Best Picture nomination (yes it also got a best song nod, but you know what I mean). Also was really happy to see The Grand Budapest Hotel get so many nods. Though putting American Sniper and The Theory of Everything on this list instead of Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, and Inherent Vice seems like a heresy. I don't mind seeing Boyhood or Birdman on this list too much, even if I didn't get into those movies nearly as much as most did. This category, however, seems like a two way race between Boyhood and Birdman, with no real clear winner. Personally, my money is still on Boyhood taking the Oscar (since Academy members really seem to dig the 12 year thing). I don't know... I just don't like it when movies win Oscars based more on gimmicks rather than actual filmmaking merits (like The Artist a few years back for instance). Still... could be worse. As long as American Sniper doesn't win this award, I won't be too upset.
Who Will Win: Boyhood
Who Should Win: Selma or The Grand Budapest Hotel
Here are the rest of my predictions (though not neccessarily my personal choices). Who will win? We'll find out tonight.
Best Picture: Boyhood
Best Director: Richard Linklater
Best Actor: Michael Keaton
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash
Best Animated Feature: How To Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign Film: Wild Tales
Best Documentary: Citizenfour
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Film Editing: Boyhood
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Score: The Theory Of Everything
Best Original Song: Glory
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline
Best Animated Short: Feast
Best Live Action Short: Boogaloo and Graham
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