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Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Sunday, February 26, 2017
Oscars 2017 - Picks and Predictions
Well, the 89th annual Academy Awards are on tonight. So its time for me to do my usual picks and predictions before the ceremony. Before I predict the winners though, here are a few of my personal predictions about the ceremony...
1. Jimmy Kimmel will be an okay (not great, not bad) host. He'll do fine, he won't bomb on stage, he'll probably land a few laughs, but its very unlikely he'll completely blow anyone away as host.
2. There will be a few comments about the improved racial diversity among the nominees this year. Nobody will dwell on it it too much, but there will be a few.
3. I expect many of the presenters/winners will take swipes at Donald Trump. I feel like this is going to be the safest prediction of the night.
But okay, here are my real picks/predictions.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck in "Manchester By The Sea"
Ryan Gosling in "La La Land"
Denzel Washington in "Fences"
Viggo Mortenson in "Captain Fantastic"
Andrew Garfield in "Hacksaw Ridge"
Alright, lets get the hardest one out of the way first. For a long time it looked like Casey Affleck was the frontrunner for his challenging, emotional, and much-lauded performance in Manchester By The Sea. That sure-thing, however, was thrown into question when details of a 2010 controversy against Affleck resurfaced. He did manage to win the Golden Globe (which doesn't hurt his chances) but Denzel Washington, who himself is a well-known Hollywood powerhouse with a good standing with the Academy, managed to win the SAG Award, which has correctly predicted this category since 2003. So yeah, this is a tricky one. My gut is still saying Affleck is going to take this one, but conventional odds would suggest Washington. I'm going out on a limb here and am going to go with Casey Affleck.
Who Will Win: Casey Affleck
Who Should Win: Casey Affleck
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert in "Elle"
Emma Stone in "La La Land"
Natalie Portman in "Jackie"
Meryl Streep in "Florence Foster Jenkins"
Ruth Negga in "Loving"
Another one that seems fairly cut and dry, but there is a slight possibility of surprise here. Its definitely a two way race between Emma Stone and Isabelle Huppert, both of whom took home Golden Globes for their performances in La La Land and Elle respectively. Stone seems like the one to beat here, but if you're looking for an upset, this is probably the category to do so. Personally, I'd prefer Isabelle Huppert or Natalie Portman to take this one, both of whom gave incredible performances.
Who Will Win: Emma Stone
Who Should Win: Isabelle Huppert
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali in "Moonlight
Dev Patel in "Lion"
Jeff Bridges in "Hell or High Water"
Lucas Hedges in "Manchester By The Sea"
Michael Shannon in "Nocturnal Animals"
This one is a bit tricky to predict. Funny enough none of these roles are particularly Oscar-ish kind of roles, so there's not one that immediately stands out as a likely contender. Plus, all have won a few different awards for their respective roles, so can't really go by those either. It does, however, seem like Mahershala Ali has emerged as the likely victor. Partially because Moonlight was an excellent film and he was really good in it, and also because the man is a self-identified Muslim, and given the current political scene, that could generate some PR buzz that Academy usually loves. So yeah, not a for sure thing, but I'm going with Ali for this one.
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Octavia Spencer in "Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams in "Manchester By The Sea"
Viola Davis in "Fences"
Naomie Harris in "Moonlight"
Nicole Kidman in "Lion"
Viola Davis has this one. No question, this is the easiest and most sure-thing category of the night. If Viola Davis does not win, that will be a HUGE shock. She's been a hard working and well-respected actress for years, a previous nominee, and blew away everyone for her go-for-broke performance in Fences. There's part of me that kind of wants to see Naomie Harris take this award since she was really good in Moonlight, but there's another part of me that's been wanting to see Davis win an Oscar for years now. So yeah, Viola Davis will win, Viola Davis should win, case closed.
Who Will Win: Viola Davis
Who Should Win: Viola Davis
Best Director
Damian Chazelle for "La La Land"
Barry Jenkins for "Moonlight"
Denis Villeneuve for "Arrival"
Mel Gibson for "Hacksaw Ridge"
Kenneth Lonergan for "Manchester by the Sea"
Another one that seems fairly predictable at the moment. Relative newcomer Damian Chazelle made a signficiant splash two years ago with his debut film, Whiplash, and did it again in 2016 with his tribute to Golden Age Hollywood musicals La La Land. He's young and not as established as the others, but the Hollywood sure loves movies about Hollywood, so expect Chazelle to win for Best Director (and expect La La Land to take home a lot tonight). I'm generally okay with that, but honestly Barry Jenkins and Denis Villeneuve are both more deserving of this award in my opinion.
Who Will Win: Damian Chazelle
Who Should Win: Barry Jenkins
Best Original Screenplay
Manchester By The Sea
La La Land
Hell or High Water
20th Century Women
The Lobster
Cool to see The Lobster among the nominees. That was a really neat, quirky, and memorably absurd comedy with a unique premise. It won't win, but its nice to see it at least get a nomination. Would like to see Hell or High Water take this one, but that's unlikely. If La La Land is going to be the juggernaut tonight everyone's expecting then writer/director Damien Chazelle definitely has got a good here shot, but I think the more likely pick is going to go to Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester By the Sea. It's a way more Oscar-y kind of film and the Academy does love a playwright turned screenwriter. Also, did you know he wrote the screenplay for the Rocky and Bullwinkle movie? He seriously did, that's hilarious.
Who Will Win: Manchester By The Sea
Who Should Win: Hell or High Water
Best Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight
Fences
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures
This really should go to Moonlight. I'd be okay if Arrival took it instead, but Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney's incredible script for Moonlight towers above pretty much every film on this list. Fortunately its looking like The Academy agrees.
Who Will Win: Moonlight
Who Should Win: Moonlight
Best Animated Feature
Moana
Zootopia
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Red Turtle
My Life as a Zucchini
Kind of surprised Finding Dory didn't make the cut this year. Granted it wasn't Pixar's best movie but still a respectable and well-made entry into the Pixar canon. It was a crowded category I guess, though I haven't seen The Red Turtle or My Life as a Zucchini yet. Both Zootopia and Kubo and the Two Strings are excellent movies that deserve this award, though I personally gravitate toward Zootopia a bit more. Since Zootopia won the Golden Globe, that seems like the likely victor here too. Works for me.
Who Will Win: Zootopia
Who Should Win: Zootopia
Best Film Editing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Moonlight
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land seems like its going to be adding this award to its sweep as well. Sure, that's fine, though the best in this category is Hacksaw Ridge.
Who Will Win: La La Land
Who Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
Deepwater Horizon
Kind of cool that Kubo and the Two Strings, a stop motion movie, qualified for this category. That movie had some damn impressive effects. As did Doctor Strange. Probably going to go to The Jungle Book though.
Who Will Win: The Jungle Book
Who Should Win: Doctor Strange
Best Picture
La La Land
Fences
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Hell or High Water
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Lion
Its a near-guarantee at this point that La La Land will win Best Picture. If it doesn't, then it will go down as one of the biggest Oscar night surprises in the history of the ceremony. Would LOVE if Moonlight pulled an upset and won Best Picture. I liked La La Land just fine, don't get me wrong, but Moonlight was a freakin' masterpiece! Would also take Arrival, Hell or High Water, or Hacksaw Ridge instead of La La Land. That said, if La La Land does take home its expected Best Picture win... well it's by no means the weakest film (or even among the weakest films) to win Best Picture. Would still much prefer it go to Moonlight though.
Who Will Win: La La Land
Who Should Win: Moonlight
Alright, and here are the rest of the categories and my predictions. Not necessarily my preferences, just the ones I expect to win.
Best Picture; La La Land
Best Director: Damian Chazelle
Best Actor: Casey Affleck
Best Actress: Emma Stone
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
Best Foreign Film: The Salesman
Best Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Film Editing: La La Land
Best Production Design: La La Land
Best Costume Design: Jackie
Best Original Score: La La Land
Best Original Song: "City of Stars" from La La Land
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Animated Short: Piper
Best Live Action Short: Ennemis Intérieurs
Best Documentary Short: The White Helmets
1. Jimmy Kimmel will be an okay (not great, not bad) host. He'll do fine, he won't bomb on stage, he'll probably land a few laughs, but its very unlikely he'll completely blow anyone away as host.
2. There will be a few comments about the improved racial diversity among the nominees this year. Nobody will dwell on it it too much, but there will be a few.
3. I expect many of the presenters/winners will take swipes at Donald Trump. I feel like this is going to be the safest prediction of the night.
But okay, here are my real picks/predictions.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck in "Manchester By The Sea"
Ryan Gosling in "La La Land"
Denzel Washington in "Fences"
Viggo Mortenson in "Captain Fantastic"
Andrew Garfield in "Hacksaw Ridge"
Alright, lets get the hardest one out of the way first. For a long time it looked like Casey Affleck was the frontrunner for his challenging, emotional, and much-lauded performance in Manchester By The Sea. That sure-thing, however, was thrown into question when details of a 2010 controversy against Affleck resurfaced. He did manage to win the Golden Globe (which doesn't hurt his chances) but Denzel Washington, who himself is a well-known Hollywood powerhouse with a good standing with the Academy, managed to win the SAG Award, which has correctly predicted this category since 2003. So yeah, this is a tricky one. My gut is still saying Affleck is going to take this one, but conventional odds would suggest Washington. I'm going out on a limb here and am going to go with Casey Affleck.
Who Will Win: Casey Affleck
Who Should Win: Casey Affleck
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert in "Elle"
Emma Stone in "La La Land"
Natalie Portman in "Jackie"
Meryl Streep in "Florence Foster Jenkins"
Ruth Negga in "Loving"
Another one that seems fairly cut and dry, but there is a slight possibility of surprise here. Its definitely a two way race between Emma Stone and Isabelle Huppert, both of whom took home Golden Globes for their performances in La La Land and Elle respectively. Stone seems like the one to beat here, but if you're looking for an upset, this is probably the category to do so. Personally, I'd prefer Isabelle Huppert or Natalie Portman to take this one, both of whom gave incredible performances.
Who Will Win: Emma Stone
Who Should Win: Isabelle Huppert
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali in "Moonlight
Dev Patel in "Lion"
Jeff Bridges in "Hell or High Water"
Lucas Hedges in "Manchester By The Sea"
Michael Shannon in "Nocturnal Animals"
This one is a bit tricky to predict. Funny enough none of these roles are particularly Oscar-ish kind of roles, so there's not one that immediately stands out as a likely contender. Plus, all have won a few different awards for their respective roles, so can't really go by those either. It does, however, seem like Mahershala Ali has emerged as the likely victor. Partially because Moonlight was an excellent film and he was really good in it, and also because the man is a self-identified Muslim, and given the current political scene, that could generate some PR buzz that Academy usually loves. So yeah, not a for sure thing, but I'm going with Ali for this one.
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Octavia Spencer in "Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams in "Manchester By The Sea"
Viola Davis in "Fences"
Naomie Harris in "Moonlight"
Nicole Kidman in "Lion"
Viola Davis has this one. No question, this is the easiest and most sure-thing category of the night. If Viola Davis does not win, that will be a HUGE shock. She's been a hard working and well-respected actress for years, a previous nominee, and blew away everyone for her go-for-broke performance in Fences. There's part of me that kind of wants to see Naomie Harris take this award since she was really good in Moonlight, but there's another part of me that's been wanting to see Davis win an Oscar for years now. So yeah, Viola Davis will win, Viola Davis should win, case closed.
Who Will Win: Viola Davis
Who Should Win: Viola Davis
Best Director
Damian Chazelle for "La La Land"
Barry Jenkins for "Moonlight"
Denis Villeneuve for "Arrival"
Mel Gibson for "Hacksaw Ridge"
Kenneth Lonergan for "Manchester by the Sea"
Another one that seems fairly predictable at the moment. Relative newcomer Damian Chazelle made a signficiant splash two years ago with his debut film, Whiplash, and did it again in 2016 with his tribute to Golden Age Hollywood musicals La La Land. He's young and not as established as the others, but the Hollywood sure loves movies about Hollywood, so expect Chazelle to win for Best Director (and expect La La Land to take home a lot tonight). I'm generally okay with that, but honestly Barry Jenkins and Denis Villeneuve are both more deserving of this award in my opinion.
Who Will Win: Damian Chazelle
Who Should Win: Barry Jenkins
Best Original Screenplay
Manchester By The Sea
La La Land
Hell or High Water
20th Century Women
The Lobster
Cool to see The Lobster among the nominees. That was a really neat, quirky, and memorably absurd comedy with a unique premise. It won't win, but its nice to see it at least get a nomination. Would like to see Hell or High Water take this one, but that's unlikely. If La La Land is going to be the juggernaut tonight everyone's expecting then writer/director Damien Chazelle definitely has got a good here shot, but I think the more likely pick is going to go to Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester By the Sea. It's a way more Oscar-y kind of film and the Academy does love a playwright turned screenwriter. Also, did you know he wrote the screenplay for the Rocky and Bullwinkle movie? He seriously did, that's hilarious.
Who Will Win: Manchester By The Sea
Who Should Win: Hell or High Water
Best Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight
Fences
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures
This really should go to Moonlight. I'd be okay if Arrival took it instead, but Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney's incredible script for Moonlight towers above pretty much every film on this list. Fortunately its looking like The Academy agrees.
Who Will Win: Moonlight
Who Should Win: Moonlight
Best Animated Feature
Moana
Zootopia
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Red Turtle
My Life as a Zucchini
Kind of surprised Finding Dory didn't make the cut this year. Granted it wasn't Pixar's best movie but still a respectable and well-made entry into the Pixar canon. It was a crowded category I guess, though I haven't seen The Red Turtle or My Life as a Zucchini yet. Both Zootopia and Kubo and the Two Strings are excellent movies that deserve this award, though I personally gravitate toward Zootopia a bit more. Since Zootopia won the Golden Globe, that seems like the likely victor here too. Works for me.
Who Will Win: Zootopia
Who Should Win: Zootopia
Best Film Editing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Moonlight
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land seems like its going to be adding this award to its sweep as well. Sure, that's fine, though the best in this category is Hacksaw Ridge.
Who Will Win: La La Land
Who Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
Deepwater Horizon
Kind of cool that Kubo and the Two Strings, a stop motion movie, qualified for this category. That movie had some damn impressive effects. As did Doctor Strange. Probably going to go to The Jungle Book though.
Who Will Win: The Jungle Book
Who Should Win: Doctor Strange
Best Picture
La La Land
Fences
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Hell or High Water
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Lion
Its a near-guarantee at this point that La La Land will win Best Picture. If it doesn't, then it will go down as one of the biggest Oscar night surprises in the history of the ceremony. Would LOVE if Moonlight pulled an upset and won Best Picture. I liked La La Land just fine, don't get me wrong, but Moonlight was a freakin' masterpiece! Would also take Arrival, Hell or High Water, or Hacksaw Ridge instead of La La Land. That said, if La La Land does take home its expected Best Picture win... well it's by no means the weakest film (or even among the weakest films) to win Best Picture. Would still much prefer it go to Moonlight though.
Who Will Win: La La Land
Who Should Win: Moonlight
Alright, and here are the rest of the categories and my predictions. Not necessarily my preferences, just the ones I expect to win.
Best Picture; La La Land
Best Director: Damian Chazelle
Best Actor: Casey Affleck
Best Actress: Emma Stone
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
Best Foreign Film: The Salesman
Best Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Film Editing: La La Land
Best Production Design: La La Land
Best Costume Design: Jackie
Best Original Score: La La Land
Best Original Song: "City of Stars" from La La Land
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Animated Short: Piper
Best Live Action Short: Ennemis Intérieurs
Best Documentary Short: The White Helmets
Thursday, February 23, 2017
Monday, February 6, 2017
Saturday, February 4, 2017
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
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