Sunday, March 2, 2014

Oscars 2014 - My Picks and Predictions

Normally every year, I'm pretty good about posting my picks and predictions for the annual Academy Awards at least a few days before the show... I kind of dropped the ball on that this year. Unfortunately, both life and time got the best of me and I've fallen a bit behind with my usual Oscar viewings/posts, though I did see all the Best Picture nominees, as well as all the nominees for the acting categories and a few others. So, while this post won't be as comprehensive as they usually are, here are my picks and predictions for this year's Oscars.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale in "American Hustle"
Bruce Dern in "Nebraska"
Leonardo DiCaprio in "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Chiwetel Ejiofor in "12 Years a Slave"
Matthew McConaughey in "Dallas Buyers Club"

It still astounds me that a thuddingly mediocre film like American Hustle was showered with so much praise from critics and the Academy. I mean, Christian Bale was good in it, but nowhere near as good as Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips, Robert Redford in All Is Lost, Michael B. Jordan in Fruitvale Station, or Joaquin Phoenix in Her (and I'm sure there are a few I'm probably forgetting). Granted, this was a crowded category this year and there was bound to be a few snubs, but Bale is definitely the weak link in the category (and make no mistake, I do generally really like Christian Bale). The buzz surrounding the picks this year, however, have been pointing to McConaughey as the likely victor. It's just a performance and role typically awarded by the academy, a previously heartthrob-turned-serious actor giving a deeply committed performance, and who lost considerable weight no less, in a true story role about a bigot-turned-hero to the battle against AIDS (ie a film that tackles some hot-button issues). Is it Oscar bait? Yeah... for the most part... but I won't say that McConaughey isn't genuinely great in the part, and the film is a generally solid movie that serves a good purpose. My personal choice would be either Leonardo DiCaprio or Bruce Dern, but Bale excluded, these would all be worthy victors.

Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
My Pick: Leonardo DiCaprio

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams in "American Hustle"
Cate Blanchett in "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock in "Gravity"
Judi Dench in "Philomena"
Meryl Streep in "August: Osage County"

I'm about to type something that I never thought I would ever say, type, or even imply. I'm wondering if I might come to regret this later on, but right now, if I'm going to be totally honest, objective, and un-biased, this is how I truly feel. So with that said............ Sandra Bullock should win the Oscar. I know! I know! It's not that I dislike Sandra Bullock, as she has been in some films I've liked, but nearly every time she's broken away from her usual shtick (the cute if not a bit klutzy but lovable romcom leading lady), the results have usually been awful. Yes, that does include her Oscar-winning role in the very overrated sports drama, "The Blind Side" (she was just okay in that). So yeah, while that might make her the least deserving two-time Oscar winning actress ever, I won't deny that she was genuinely excellent in Gravity. Taking on such a physically and emotionally demanding role, mainly in front of a green screen with few other actors to act off of... yeah that would be a challenge for everyone, but she nailed it! Probably won't matter though, as Blanchett seems like she's got it this year. The only thing keeping me from calling her a sure thing, however, is the recent controversies surrounding Woody Allen, and if that does cost Blanchett the award, it will probably end up going to Amy Adams (the only one of these actresses who has not won already). Still, if you want the safe bet, go with Blanchett. Also... why the Hell was Emma Thompson not nominated for Saving Mr. Banks??? If they had replaced Meryl Streep from the seriously overrated and actually pretty bad "August: Osage County" with Thompson, this would have been a perfect lineup.

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
My Pick: Sandra Bullock

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi for "Captain Phillips"
Bradley Cooper for "American Hustle"
Michael Fassbender for "12 Years a Slave"
Jonah Hill for "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Jared Leto for "Dallas Buyers Club"

Pretty good choices this year... except for Bradley Cooper. Could we have replaced him with Daniel Brühl from Rush or Tom Hanks from Saving Mr. Banks? Oh well, can't win them all. This award seems to have Jared Leto's name all over it as the AIDS-positive transgender woman in Dallas Buyers Club. There has been some minor controversy regarding whether an actual transsexual actress should have been cast in the part, but since Leto has been racking up pretty much all the other awards for this role, he's the likley contender. I'm okay with that, Jared Leto has always been an underrated actor and I'm glad he's finally getting some recognition. Personally, I'd love to see Barkhad Abti win this one, as his debut performance as the complicated and threatening Somali pirate leader in Captain Phillips was nothing less than captivating. If Leto doesn't win, he'd be the most likely to sneak in and take the award.

Who Will Win: Jared Leto
My Pick: Barkhad Abdi

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins in "Blue Jasmine"
Jennifer Lawrence  in "American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o in "12 Years a Slave"
Julia Roberts in "August: Osage County"
June Squibb in "Nebraska"

This award has come down to a two-way race between Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong'o. While Lawrence is good in American Hustle, I'm really hoping she doesn't win this year. I like Jennifer Lawrence, don't get me wrong, but there was never a point in American Hustle where I felt her performance was even remotely Oscar worthy. Lupita Nyong'o, on the other hand, gave such an emotional, heartfelt, and tragic performance in 12 Years a Slave, that it was impossible to not be moved by such dedication. For such compelling work in such a heartbreaking film, I'm going to be pissed if she doesn't win. Fortunately, it seems like Nyong'o is going to be taking the award anyways, so that would be just fine by me.

Who Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
My Pick: Lupita Nyong'o

Best Director
David O'Russell for "American Hustle"
Alfonso Cuarón for "Gravity"
Alexander Payne for "Nebraska"
Steve McQueen for "12 Years a Slave"
Martin Scorsese for "The Wolf of Wall Street"

There was once a time I thought David O'Russell was one of the most promising filmmakers working today... I no longer subscribe to such sentiment. It's not that he's a bad filmmaker, it's just that for a director who once showed promise by taking chances with risky ideas or at least putting interesting spins on well-established tropes, his last two films have been hurt by tonal inconsistencies, questionable storytelling, and an willing embrace of the overdone Hollywood cliches he once managed to avoid or subvert. Fortunately, four out of five of these directors are very well deserving of this award, though it will probably go to Alfonso Cuarón. My personal choice would either be Martin Scorsese or Steve McQueen, but Cuarón's sure hand as a director and incredible vision was ultimately what made Gravity such a success. So yeah, that's totally fine with me if Cuarón wins.

Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
My Pick: Martin Scorsese

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

There has been a bit of commotion and tons of jokes surrounding the fact that a Jackass film was nominated for an Oscar. I'll admit, just saying that is kind of hilarious. That said, and I swear this is dead serious, I think it should win. Dallas Buyers Club would seem like the likely victor, as it's the sole prestige film nominated in this category, but the aging effects used to turn Johnny Knoxville into an 80-year-old man were damn good and even Oscar-worthy. Of course, I have to ask.... WHAT THE HELL IS THE LONE RANGER DOING ON THIS LIST??? Jackass has taken most of the heat for this category, but the Lone Ranger is the true wtf nominee. I mean... giving Johnny Depp the means to go redface is offensive and disgusting, and even if that wasn't bad enough, I don't see how smearing war paint and putting a dead bird on his head equals Oscar nominee. Ugh! Honestly Academy, couldn't you have nominated The Hobbit instead? That film's makeup was way more impressive... and far less racist too.

Who Will Win: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa
My Pick: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa

Best Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

As an editor myself, I always insist on commenting in this category. As far as snubs go, I would have liked to have seen Rush or Her on this list instead of American Hustle or Dallas Buyers Club. Though it seems like this award is going to go to Gravity (as will most of the tech awards). I'd prefer to give it to Captain Phillips personally, but Gravity is just fine too.

Who Will Win: Gravity
My Pick: Captain Phillips

Best Original Song
"Happy" from "Despicable Me 2"
"Let It Go" from "Frozen"
"The Moon Song" from "Her"
"Ordinary Love" from "Mandela: The Long Walk to Freedom"

The buzz surrounding this category has mainly been centered around the previously nominated "Alone, Yet Not Alone" nomination being revoked. I personally could care less, it wasn't a very good song anyways and I've heard the film in which it was featured is supposedly awful. Not that it had much of a chance anyways, since "Let It Go" is going to win this award. Frozen's big musical number and song has struck such a chord with critics and audiences that there's little chance of it not getting the Oscar. I have no problem with that whatsoever.

Who Will Win: "Let It Go"
My Pick: "Let It Go"

Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

I didn't do a very good job this year seeing 2013's animated fare. It wasn't a great year for animated features to begin with, despite a few hidden gems. The one I'm most disappointed to miss was The Wind Rises, the final feature to be directed by Japanese animation legend Hayao Miyazaki. With an extensive filmography of incredible anime features, it's admittedly pretty sad that his long and amazing career has come to an end. I haven't seen The Wind Rises yet, so I can't comment on it, but I might write a review down the road when I do finally see it. The only films I saw this year in the category were The Croods and Frozen, and between the two, Frozen is clearly the better film. I might change my opinion later on when I see the rest of these flicks, but at the moment, I'm set on Frozen winning the award... which it probably will.

Who Will Win: Frozen
My Pick: Frozen

Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

If it's a technical award, there's a strong chance that Gravity will win it. Would have preferred to see Pacific Rim on this list instead of the reprehensible Lone Ranger, but these choices are overall pretty good I suppose. Doesn't matter though, Gravity is going to win this award, I'll be shocked if it doesn't.

Who Will Win: Gravity
My Pick: Gravity

Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

I know I skipped a ton of categories, but time's a factor and I don't have much to say about the rest. So, here's the Best Picture lineup. It seems like it's come down to a two-way race between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave... though many are speculating that The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are strong contenders for an upset. I'll admit, it's a tricky one to predict this year, and there's no obvious victor in sight. 12 Years a Slave would seem to be the more "Oscar-ish" film to win such an award, but Gravity has struck such a chord, that we might actually see an effects-driven blockbuster take the prize (that rarely happens). If you want to play the odds, 12 Years a Slave is the safest bet, but don't be too surprised if the presenter announces Gravity as the winner. For me, The Wolf of Wall Street is who I'm rooting for, but 12 Years a Slave or Gravity would suit me just fine... so would Nebraska or Her as well... actually if any of these films won instead of American Hustle, I'd probably survive. Seriously though American Hustle... please Academy don't give the award to a shallow Goodfellas-wannabe, especially where there's an actual Scorsese film among the nominees.

Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
My Pick: The Wolf of Wall Street

Below are a list of my predictions, though not necessarily my personal choices, in the previous categories as well as the awards I didn't mention. Who will win? We'll find out tonight!

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
Original Screenplay: Her
Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Animated Feature: Frozen
Foreign Film: The Great Beauty
Costume Design: American Hustle
Makeup: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa
Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Editing: Gravity
Cinematography: Gravity
Sound Editing: Gravity
Sound Mixing: Gravity
Visual Effects: Gravity (Like I said, if it's a technical award, go with Gravity)
Original Song: "Let it Go"
Original Score: Gravity
Live Action Short: The Voorman Problem
Animated Short: Get A Horse
Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing
Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6