Tomorrow is February 24, and that means it's the night of the annual Academy Awards. It's the night where all of film-making's most celebrated and prestigious individuals come together to honor Hollywood's greatest achievements of the year. Well... at least on paper, that's what the event entails. In reality, it's a night fake smiles, politics, and backstabbing full of audiences and members bitching and moaning about who should have won, who shouldn't have, who was snubbed from the nominees, and the general ugly side of the industry. But you know what, none of that really matters. In this industry, there is no award or honor more prestigious, lovely, and celebrated than the good old Oscar, and whether you agree with the picks or not, you have to admit that it's always an exciting evening. The mystery, the anticipation, as well as the often event itself (as long as James Franco never hosts again) is at the very least, an enjoyable experience. So will this year's show live up to the name of Oscar??? We'll find out tomorrow, for now, here are my picks and predictions of the Oscar nominees.
While I haven't seen all of the nominated films this year, 2012 is easily the most I've seen from any respective year. I'm not going in any particular order here, and I won't give detailed responses to all of the categories (but I will give a rundown at the end). That said, I'll save Best Picture for last. Without further ado, here are my thoughts and predictions of this year's nominees.
Best Actor in a Leader Role
Bradley Cooper for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis for "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman for "Les Misérables"
Joaquin Phoenix for "The Master"
Denzel Washington for "Flight"
Pretty good and diverse list, I have to say. There were tons of great actors this year and way too many to choose from, and that said, I have no real issues with this list. There's a bi-polar trying to get his life back together, a portrayal of America's 16th president, a musical turn for performer best known to US audiences as an action star, a career best for Phoenix as a mentally unstable war vet, and a troubled pilot fighting the demons of alcohol abuse. Prior to the nominees announcement, I was sure that Joaquin Phoenix was going to get snubbed (because of the dude's questionable career moves, it seemed like a for sure thing), but to the Academy's credit they knew it was a great performance, and they honored it. Personally, my ideal line-up would have included John Hawkes for The Sessions instead of Bradley Cooper (though to Cooper's credit, he was quite good in Silver Linings Playbook), but I have no real objections. Still, my personal favorite is Joaquin Phoenix's unhinged portrayal of Freddie Quell, an disturbed WWII vet who gets mixed up with a self-help movement slowly morphing into a cult (ie Scientology metaphor). As far as predictions go, there's really not a whole lot of mystery to this category. Daniel Day-Lewis looks like he's inline for his third Oscar victory for his role as president Abraham Lincoln. No real objections to that choice, it was a damn good performance and the guy is a damn good actor.
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
My Pick: Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress in a Leader Role
Jessica Chastain for "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva for "Amour"
Quvenzhané Wallis for "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts for "The Impossible"
Pretty good choices here too, no real objections. I don't think it's a coincidence that this year just so happened to have the category's youngest nominee of all time (Quvenzhané Wallis) competing with category's oldest (Emmanuelle Riva). While both great actresses, I wouldn't bet on seeing Watts or Wallis take home the award, because this looks mostly like a two-way race between Chastain or Lawrence with Riva as an outsider contending for a possible upset. While these are all strong roles and great actresses, my personal pick is still Jessica Chastain as the CIA recruit bent on finding Osama bin Laden. Emmanuelle Riva is very close second though as the elderly French woman struggling to recover from a recent stroke. It's tight race, but I'm going to say Jessica Chastain will probably be taking home the award. That said, if Lawrence got picked, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest. If she did win, I could live with that.
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain (maybe)
My Pick: Jessica Chastain (with Emmanuelle Riva a very close second)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin for "Argo"
Robert De Niro for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman for "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones for "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz for "Django Unchained"
This was one of the more controversial categories of the year, second only to the choices for Best Director (I'll get to that soon). It's also the hardest to predict. Five nominees, all of whom have won Oscar gold in the past, and all who seem to have a strong chance of winning. Three of these picks have fairly recently (Waltz, Hoffman, and Arkin) so they probably won't get called, but you never know. The two most likely contenders seem to be Robert De Niro and Tommy Lee Jones, both whom are great. While I am actually a HUGE De Niro fan, I'm not exactly on board with him winning this year. His performance in Silver Linings Playbook was great, don't get me wrong, I don't think it was strong as the others choices, or even actors that got snubbed, namely Samuel L. Jackson for Django Unchained, Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild, and especially Leonardo Di Caprio for Django Unchained, who for me personally, is the biggest acting snub of the night. Among what we have though, my personal favorite is Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Master, though I'm anticipating Tommy Lee Jones will win. De Niro might come through, but my money's still on Jones.
Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones
My Pick: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for "The Master"
Sally Field for "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway for "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt for "The Sessions"
Jacki Weaver for "Silver Linings Playbook"
This category has been unofficially dubbed "The Anne Hathaway Award" this year, since there's little doubt that anyone other than Hathaway is going to win. I have no major issues with that, since Hathaway was legitimately great in the role, but it was really too small of a part to compare with some of the other nominees. If there is going to be an upset, it's probably going to go to Sally Field, whose cute story of how campaigned for the role of Mary Todd Lincoln is usually the kind of sap story the Academy eats up. Still, I would be very surprised anyone other than Hathaway won. Personally, my choice would either come down to Sally Field or Helen Hunt, both of whom I thought were excellent.
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway
My Pick: Sally Field
Best Director
Michael Haneke for "Amour"
Ang Lee for "Life of Pi"
David O. Russell for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Steven Spielberg for "Lincoln"
Benh Zeitlin for "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Oh boy, the controversy surrounding this category is still an issue. The baffling snubs of Ben Affleck (who for a while seemed like a high contender for the win, let alone a nomination), Kathryn Bigelow, and Quentin Tarantino are ridiculous. I have no problems with Spielberg, Haneke, and Lee making the list, but I'm not exactly on board with Russell and Zeitlin making the nominees. Zeitlin less so, since I really did like Beasts of the Southern Wild and admired it's creativity. David O Russell on the other hand, while a very talented filmmaker, doesn't belong on this list. Granted, Silver Linings Playbook had some really strong performances, due in no small part to the director, but aside from that, it was a very straightforward, by-the-numbers, directorial effort. He was by no means as creative as Tarantino, as precise as Bigelow, or as ambitious as Affleck. Oh well, what are you going to do? With Affleck out of the way, this award looks like Spielberg's to loose. Among these guys, he would be my choice too.
Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg
My Pick: Steven Spielberg
Best Original Screenplay
Michael Haneke for "Amour"
Quentin Tarantino for "Django Unchained"
John Gatins for "Flight"
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for "Moonrise Kingdom"
Mark Boal for "Zero Dark Thirty"
I like these choices. It was nice to see Moonrise Kingdom get at least one nomination. It was also a pleasant surprise to see Flight get recognized for it's script in addition to Washington's performance. As far as predictions go, it seems like this is the only category where Django Unchained seems like it has a good shot at winning. The controversial nature of the script might turn off some members, in which case it would probably go to Moonrise Kingdom, but I'm thinking Django has it.
Who Will Win: Django Unchained
My Pick: Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay
Chris Terrio for "Argo"
Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar for "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
David Magee for "Life of Pi"
Tony Kushner for "Lincoln"
David O. Russell for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Not too bad either, but I'm not quite as on board with these choices as the Original Screenplay category. Argo seems like the likely victor for this category, both for it's suspenseful and intruiging concept, as well as the "America! Fuck Yeah!" vibes plus a touch of Hollywood's role as the hero and a good opportunity to pat themselves on the back. I'll admit that Argo had a really clever script, but the major thing that has been holding me back from calling the film a bona-fide masterpiece is it's retooling of facts and historical events for the sake of Hollywood drama. Granted it didn't ruin the movie, but it's there. Life Of Pi, both the book and script, were creative, if not a bit pretentious. Silver Linings Playbook was at best, a made-for-TV sitcom style movie with a cliched ending and really doesn't belong among the others. Beasts of the Southern Wild was quite good, but personally I'm rooting for Lincoln this time around. While Lincoln's script may have fudged the facts a bit too, it nonetheless took a fairly routine Oscar-bait concept and turned it into a clever, thrilling, and sometimes funny, analysis of the political system. For that reason, it gets my vote.
Who Will Win: Argo
My Pick: Lincoln
Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Bands of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
I only saw three out of the five movies from this category. Unfortunately, every time I went to a Redbox to find Pirates or Frankenweenie, they were already checked out. So I can't personally speak for either of those. I will say though that the three I did see were quite good, though like last year Pixar isn't the obvious choice for the winner, as they usually are. That said, it seems like it's going to come down to either Brave or Wreck-It Ralph. While my choice would be ParaNorman with Wreck-It Ralph as my second pick, most of the predictions and analysts I've been reading have been leaning toward Brave. ParaNorman and Frankenweenie are too strongly associated with the horror genre and Wreck-It Ralph's video game themed subject matter probably doesn't jive with the mostly senior-aged Academy members. So... while it's not a for sure thing, Brave is my prediction.
Who Will Win: Brave
My Pick: ParaNorman
Best Foreign Film
Amour
Rebelle
No
A Royal Affair
Kon-Tiki
The only film I saw in this category is Amour, so I can't really choose a personal favorite. That said, it seems like that's the likely winners anyways.
Who Will Win: Amour
My Pick: Amour by default
Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Hey look! Skyfall made the list! While some were predicting that a James Bond actually stood a chance at getting picked for some of the major categories, it looks like the film is going to have to settle for the technical categories. Overall, these are good choices. My personal pick would probably either come down to Life Of Pi or Skyfall, though Django Unchained had some great camerawork too. Still, I think Life of Pi will ultimately emerge as the winner here.
Who Will Win: Life of Pi
My Pick: Skyfall
Best Editing
Argo
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Once again, Silver Linings Playbook snuck it's way into an undeserved nomination. It's all more insulting when you consider that a far more deserving film like Cloud Atlas (who got snubbed all the way) or Skyfall could have taken it's place. Oh well. Out of these choices, I think Argo is going to take the trophy. That would be my pick too... or maybe Zero Dark Thirty. Both are well edited films that deserve to be recognized.
Who Will Win: Argo
My Pick: Argo
Best Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
Nice to see The Hobbit make the ballot in some way. Anna Karenina made quite an impression some of the technical categories too, not that I have any major issues with that. This one is tough to predict. Life Of Pi mostly takes place at sea, created mostly through cgi, though the scenes that do take place on land look pretty spectacular. My personal choice would either be Life of Pi or Lincoln. Though the winner will be... either of Life of Pi or Les Misérables. I guess I need to chose one, let's say Life Of Pi.
Who Will Win: Life of Pi
My Choice: Lincoln
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
Oh great... Mirror Mirror got an Oscar nod... PFFT!!! Well, to the film's credit, the costumes were quite good... BUT THE REST OF THE MOVIE SUCKED!!! Anywho... I think Anna Karenina is going to take home this Oscar, which is fine by me.
Who Will Win: Anna Karenina
My Choice: Anna Karenina
Best Original Song
Before My Time from "Chasing Ice"
Suddenly from "Les Misérables"
Pi's Lullaby from "Life of Pi"
Skyfall from "Skyfall"
Everybody Needs a Friend from "Ted"
It would be kind of funny if the song from Ted won, since Seth Macfarlane, the song's lyricist, happens to be hosting the event. That won't happen though, since this Oscar has Skyfall's name written all over it. Skyfall will win, Skyfall should win, case closed.
Who Will Win: Skyfall
My Choice: Skyfall
Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Here's the category that typically is the only area where blockbusters and crowd-pleasers stand a chance at getting recognized. I would have preferred to see Cloud Atlas here instead of Snow White, but these aren't bad choices at all. It would be nice to see The Avengers or Prometheus take home this award, but I have a feeling it's being reserved for Life of Pi. That's cool.
Who Will Win: Life of Pi
My Choice: The Avengers
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Seriously... you nominated Les Miz, and to a lesser extent Hitchcock, for this award while snubbing Cloud Atlas??? Yeah, I call bullshit on that! The Hobbit had some great makeup effects while Hitchcock's were good but nothing amazing all while Les Miz's were very very very passable. Unlike Cloud Atlas, which had some of the most ambitious and incredible makeup I've ever seen! Oh well, I have a feeling that film is going to be a Blade Runner-like cult classic down the line, so we'll wait for it's recognition then. For now, let's Hope The Hobbit gets this award instead of Les Misérables... which will probably win unfortunately.
Who Will Win: Les Misérables
My Choice: Cloud Atlas... but it wasn't nominated, so The Hobbit
Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Alright, I know I skipped a few categories, but I'll include my predictions in the rundown below. Now we come to the category for the best film of the year. This one has been a tough one to predict. When the nominations were announced, it seemed like Lincoln was the likely choice. The logic that because Bigelow and Affleck were snubbed for a director nod, that their chances of winning Best Picture were slim. There have been three films in the history of the Oscars to win Best Picture and not receive a director nod, the last of which was 1989's Driving Miss Daisy. Over the last couple weeks though, Argo has emerged as the film's most likely victor, possibly because the Academy realized they screwed up by neglecting to nominate Affleck, who has been winning award after award for his work on the film... which itself has been winning countless awards including the Golden Globe for Best Drama. So yeah... Argo looks like this year's Best Picture. If you're betting on an upset though... Lincoln is probably second in line, but I wouldn't count on it. Me personally, I would choose Django Unchained. Not only is it Quentin Tarantino's most ambitious film in years, it's also one of the most challenging and well-made movies the many years. That said, it's too damn controversial to actually receive the accolade for Best Picture. I'm kind of surprised it got as many nominations as it did to be honest. But there you go, Best Picture, it's going to be Argo.
Who Will Win: Argo
My Pick: Django Unchained
I'll list my predictions for the films I've mentioned plus the categories I didn't get around to. Keep in mind, below are my predictions, not necessarily my personal choices. Who will win? We'll find out tomorrow!
Best Picture: Argo
Lead Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Lead Actress: Jessica Chastain
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Director: Steven Spielberg
Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Animated Feature: Brave
Foreign Film: Amour
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Production Design: Les Misérables
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup: Les Misérables
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Original Score: Life of Pi
Original Song: Skyfall
Animated Short: Paperman
Live Action Short: Curfew
Documentary: Searching For Sugar Man
Documentary Short: Open Heart
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