2011 Oscar Predictions

Alright, I've watched as many as the Oscar nominated films as I could, the other award ceremonies are mostly done, and I've been following the buzz and gossip enough to make my predictions for the upcoming Oscar winners. Here are my opinions on who will probably win and who I personally think should win.

Best Actor In A Lead Role

Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”

Great choices, excellent choices really. I haven't seen Biutiful yet, but if Javier Bardem is as good in that one as he is in most of his movies, I'd say its a nomination well earned. That being said, the winner for this one is this year's easiest award to predict... Colin Firth for The King's Speech. Firth has been a perennial favorite for the Academy for a while now and after missing out last year, he's pretty much got this one in the bag. While both Javier Bardem and Jeff Bridges are great... they've both won recently. As for James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg... both outstanding performances, but too young to compete with the Academy's preferred acting veterans.

Who Will Win: Colin Firth

Who I Would Pick: Colin Firth

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”

Also outstanding choices, but will probably come down to two. Christian Bale is the best bet right now, after being a critical and audience favorite for years, he finally got his long deserved nomination in a critically received film that is usually the kind of movie the Academy loves. Then again, The King's Speech also resonates with the Academy quite well, and Geoffrey Rush's critically acclaimed performance is looking promising too, even though he's already got one Oscar victory under his belt.

Who Will Win: Christian Bale (Probably)

Who I Would Pick: Bale... partially because his performance in The Fighter was really good and because he's been overlooked by the Academy for years... "Do you like Huey Lewis and the News?"

Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Didn't see Blue Valentine or Rabbit Hole, so I can't really speak for Williams or Kidman. But lets be honest here... Natalie Portman acted her ass off in Black Swan and while I have no doubt the others are great, Natalie Portman has this one in the bag. The only thing that might scare off Academy voters is the dark subject matter of Black Swan. If that happens, Bening will be next in line. Still, I think Portman's got this one.

Who Will Win: Natalie Portman

Who I Think Should Win: Do I really need to say it???

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Out of all the acting categories, this one is this toughest to call. I'm gonna go with Melissa Leo for The Fighter as who probably will win. After receiving critical praise for her performance in The Fighter plus a nomination under her belt already, there's a decent chance she'll win. My personal favorite is Hailee Steinfeld. To be honest, I think she's getting cheated for being nominated for the "supporting" category when she really should have been nominated for a leading role (she was the main character after all).

Who Will Win: Melissa Leo (Maybe)

Who I Would Pick: Hailee Steinfeld

Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
“The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
“Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich

Toy Story 3! NEXT!

Cinematography
“Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
“Inception” Wally Pfister
“The King's Speech” Danny Cohen
“The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
“True Grit” Roger Deakins

True Grit and The King's Speech both had solid camerawork, but nowhere near as interesting, creative, or stimulating as the other three on this list. Pretty sure this one will come down to Inception.

Who Will Win: Inception

Who I Would Pick: Inception

Art Direction
“Alice in Wonderland” Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
“Inception” Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
“The King's Speech” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
“True Grit” Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

Hell I don't know whose gonna win this one. They were all artistically dynamic in their own ways. My choices would either be Inception or Harry Potter. Though Alice In Wonderland (Blah!) might stand a chance at winning this one on account of how much money the movie took in at the box office.

Who Will Win: Not sure...

Who Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I

Costume Design
“Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood
“I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi
“The King's Speech” Jenny Beavan
“The Tempest” Sandy Powell
“True Grit” Mary Zophres

The Academy generally prefers Victorian/Romanic era Royalty costumes for this category... though if that's not an option, historical pieces usually become the top choice. Alice In Wonderland comes closest to this Victorian theme but because its a fantasy film and not a historical piece, The King's Speech is probably the top choice among academy members. Personally I'd like True Grit to win this award.

Who Will Win: The King's Speech (Probably)

Who Should Win: True Grit

Directing
“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter” David O. Russell
“The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network” David Fincher
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Dear Academy Members,

Don't think that I've forgotten that you've snubbed Christopher Nolan AGAIN out of an Oscar nomination. I'd be willing to forgive you if you gave Darren Aronofsky that said Oscar victory, but since I know you're not going to do that, I'll settle for the more likely chance of David Fincher winning. It's only because you nominated two of my favorite directors that I'm willing to eventually put this nonsense behind us. Next time, I hope you realize your mistakes and figure this out.

Who Will Win: David Fincher

Who Should Win: Darren Aronofsky

Film Editing

“Black Swan” Andrew Weisblum
“The Fighter” Pamela Martin
“The King's Speech” Tariq Anwar
“127 Hours” Jon Harris
“The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

Oh my favorite category! I think this one will either be The Social Network or 127 Hours, more likely the former. All of these are really good choices though, it could honestly go to any one of them. Personally, I would pick Black Swan for this award, but hey, I gotta be me!

Who Will Win: The Social Network (Probably)
Who Should Win: Black Swan

Visual Effects
“Alice in Wonderland” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
“Hereafter” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky and Joe Farrell
“Inception” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
“Iron Man 2” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick

Dear Academy,

Me again. I might have been able to turn a blind eye to the fact that you snubbed Tron Legacy out of this Visual Effects Oscar had the other choices all been worthy contenders. Don't get me wrong, Inception, Harry Potter, and... yes, even Alice in Wonderland all had great visuals that merit a nomination. But Iron Man 2... sure the effects were good but nowhere near as impressive as Tron. However, its the fact that you put F**KING HEREAFTER among the nominees! The visuals in that movie SUCKED!!! Sure, I know Inception would have won this Oscar no matter what... but seriously the lack of love you showed for Tron... one of the most visually dynamic movies of the year... was really lame.

Who Will Win: Inception
Who I Would Pick: Inception (even if Tron had been nominated, Inception would still be my top pick)

Best Foreign Language Film
“Biutiful” Mexico
“Dogtooth” Greece
“In a Better World” Denmark
“Incendies” Canada
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Alegeria

Haven't seen any of the movies on this list, so I can't say who I would pick. Though, seeing as Biutiful was nominated for another category, I imagine that will be the winner.

Who Will Win: Biutiful
Who I Would Pick: No clue

Best Makeup
“Barney's Version” Adrien Morot
“The Way Back” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
“The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey

Yay! Rick Baker gets his 11th Oscar nomination, if he wins this... it'll be Oscar victory #7! Here's some pointless trivia for you: Baker was the first person to win an Oscar for Best Makeup. In 1981, when the category was added to the list, he won for another Werewolf movie, the horror/comedy, "An American Werewolf In London." (If you haven't seen that movie, check it out, because its awesome!).

As for who will win and who should win... I've only seen one film in this, The Wolfman. Maybe for old time sakes that will be the winner, but I wouldn't bet on it... seeing how much the Academy loves horror films *sarcasm*. So, I really can't say who will win this one.

Who Will Win: No idea... for argument's sake, lets say "The Way Back."
Who I Would Pick: The Wolfman by default I guess.

Best Picture
“Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
“The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
“Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
“The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
“127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
“The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
“Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
“True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

Its the second year the Academy is trying out 10 Best Picture nominees. Just like last year, its probably going to come down to just two... "The Social Network" and "The King's Speech." This is a tough one to predict, as the more likely favorite among voting members would be "The King's Speech." Still, the Academy has been slowly transitioning into more of a "we like new stuff too" theme. So, its could go to either one. Since David Fincher is the likely candidate for Best Director, the theory is that "The King's Speech" will get Best Picture in return. Then again, many thought that would be the case with "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker" last year, and look how that worked out. My prediction is going to have to be "The Social Network" (partially because it just seems like the Academy is working in that direction and also because I liked it a little more). Though if "The King's Speech" won, I would not be surprised in the slightest. My choice for the category would be Black Swan (shocker I know.)

Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I Would Pick: Black Swan

As for the other categories, I'll include them in a short rundown right here. These are my predictions, not necessarily my top choices.

Best Picture: The Social Network
Leading Actor: Colin Firth
Leading Actress: Natalie Portman
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
Director: David Fincher
Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Foreign Language: Biutiful
Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Visual Effects: Inception
Sound Editing: Inception
Sound Mixing: Inception
Animated Short: Day & Night
Live Action Short: The Confession
Original Score: Inception
Original Song: If I Rise
Editing: The Social Network
Costume Design: The King's Speech
Art Direction: True Grit
Cinematography: Inception
Documentary: Gasland
Short Documentary: Sun Come Up (No idea, just a random guess)