Oscars 2015 - My Picks and Predictions

Alright! So the 2015 Oscars are only a few hours away, so here are my last minute predictions and personal picks for this year's nominations. As I mentioned before, 2014 was actually a pretty good year for movies... even if a lot of the year's better offerings didn't get recognized by the Academy. Still, here are thoughts on a few of the categories.

Best Actor in a Lead Role
Steve Carell in "Foxcatcher"
Bradley Cooper in "American Sniper"
Benedict Cumberbatch in "The Imitation Game"
Michael Keaton in "Birdman"
Eddie Redmayne in "The Theory of Everything"

Let's start out with the toughest one to predict tonight shall we? Firstly... I'm still pretty ticked that David Oyelowo wasn't recognized for his performance as Martin Luther King Jr. in Selma. Not only would that have added some much needed diversity to this year's infamously white-washed nominations, but it was a damn good performance that was miles better than Bradley Cooper in the incredibly overrated American Sniper. Ugh... well, out of these nominations, it seems like it's come down to a two way race between Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. Keaton was the front-runner for the longest time, but Redmayne has been picking up awards left and right for his performance as Stephen Hawking. Tough call, but my money is still on Michael Keaton... though I could easily see this one going to Redmayne. Also, some have been predicting that Bradley Cooper might pull an upset (hopefully that won't happen).

Who Will Win: Michael Keaton (probably)
Who Should Win: For me personally... it's a two way tie between Steve Carell and Michael Keaton

Best Actress in a Lead Role
Marion Cotillard in "Two Days, One Night"
Felicity Jones in "The Theory Of Everything"
Julianne Moore in "Still Alice"
Rosamund Pike in "Gone Girl"
Reese Witherspoon in "Wild"

As I mentioned in my list for the Best Movies of 2014... Gone Girl was my favorite, and a major reason for that was because of Rosamund Pike's excellent performance, so she is the one I would prefer to see take home this award. That won't happen though, since this Oscar has had Julianne Moore's name written all over it for months now. Far and away, Moore is the only true lock in any category and easily the safest bet of the night.

Who Will Win: Julianne Moore
Who Should Win: Rosamund Pike

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert Duvall in "The Judge"
Ethan Hawke in "Boyhood"
Edward Norton in "Birdman"
Mark Ruffalo in "Foxcatcher"
J.K. Simmons in "Whiplash"

Another fairly easy one to predict, it seems like J. Jonah Jameson... or umm... JK Simmons is the likely victor for this category. There's a slight possibility Edward Norton might pull an upset, but I wouldn't count on it. Personally, I'm rooting for Simmons as well. All of these actors were actually quite solid in each of their respective roles (even if The Judge was a thuddingly subpar movie only slightly elevated by the performances of Duvall and Robert Downey Jr), but I've always been a huge fan of the extremely under-appreciated JK Simmons, so I'm thrilled he's finally receiving some well deserved Oscar recognition.

Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette in "Boyhood"
Laura Dern in "Wild"
Keira Knightly in "The Imitation Game"
Emma Stone in "Birdman"
Meryl Streep in "Into The Woods"

It'll be a huge surprise if anyone other than Patricia Arquette picks up this Oscar. Personally... I'm actually totally okay with that. I've been fairly critical toward Boyhood (generally liked the movie, but I do think it's somewhat overrated) for relying too much on it's 12 year gimmick rather than any actual filmmaking merits. Arquette, however, was the only performer in that movie to rise above the gimmicky storytelling and deliver something truly magnificent. Not only does she give the best performance in the movie, but she was the ONLY character to experience any real profound growth (physically, mentally, and emotionally) and contributed genuine character development that warranted the 12 years of filming (well, to a lesser extent, Ethan Hawke did this as well). Yes, I know everyone else in the movie obviously grew over the 12 years, but the characters themselves were fairly one note and shallow. So yeah, Patricia Arquette's Oscar, in my opinion, is well-earned.

Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette

Best Director
Wes Anderson for "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Alejandro González Iñárritu for "Birdman"
Richard Linklater for "Boyhood"
Bennett Miller for "Foxcatcher"
Mortem Taylor for "The Imitation Game"

Ummm... why is Mortem Taylor on this list while Ava Duvernay (director of Selma) is not? Yes, Duvernay was one of many unfortunate snubs in the long list of snubs for the excellent civil rights drama that is Selma. Hey Academy! Not only did you snub a great filmmaker for a great film, but you also missed a huge chance to make history. Had she been nominated, Duvernay would have been the first black woman nominated in this category. Ugh... get your shit together Oscars. At least you nominated Wes Anderson, he has been overdue for a nod in this category for a while. Though I have a feeling this award will be going to Linklater. That's... okay I guess. I really do like Richard Linklater as a filmmaker (Dazed and Confused still holds up remarkably well), but like I said before... Boyhood still just didn't do much for me. Though Iñárritu has also been rumored to be a major contender for this award as well... that's a little better anyways.

Who Will Win: Richard Linklater
Who Should Win: Wes Anderson

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How To Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Well... this category experienced it's first major controversy. Typically, the Best Animated Film is usually one of the least discussed and most predictable categories of the night (rarely has there every been a major shock, snub or surprise when it comes to animated films). But oh boy... the fallout from the lack of The Lego Movie's nomination is still being felt today. And it should! The Lego Movie, despite being a nakedly commercial product, was a genuinely excellent movie with a memorable script, excellent animation, and top notch voice acting. The fact that a film like that turned out as well as it did is absolutely incredible. Shame on you Academy!!! Well... I actually only saw Big Hero 6 and How To Train Your Dragon 2 on this list, and it seems like the latter is probably going to win. Whatever... would prefer Big Hero 6 win, but without The Lego Movie, this category feels fairly moot this year.

Who Will Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2
Who Should Win: Big Hero 6

Best Film Editing
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

Really surprised that Birdman didn't get a nomination on this list, since it seemed like a shoe-in. Well... probably not gonna matter since it seems like Boyhood's 12 years worth of footage spliced together is going to take this Oscar. That's okay I guess, though I'd prefer to see Whiplash or Grand Budapest Hotel take that honor.

Who Will Win: Boyhood
Who Should Win: Whiplash

Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

Yeah... this one has got Birdman's name written all over it. The way the cinematographers captured the tracking shots that looked like one continuous take was pretty damn incredible, not gonna lie. Works for me.

Who Will Win: Birdman
Who Should Win: Birdman

Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler

Glad to see Nightcrawler get a nomination here, would be totally okay with seeing that one win. Though personally, my favorite would be The Grand Budapest Hotel... which will probably be the case. Could easily see Boyhood or Birdman take this one though (hopefully not though).

Who Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory Of Everything
Whiplash

Ugh!!! Why wasn't Gone Girl nominated in this category??? I was sure that would be a nomination! Would have definitely been a better pick than the incredibly flawed American Sniper or the script for the mostly generic The Theory of Everything (that movie was about as formulaic as they get... it was only slightly elevated by it's two strong lead actors). At least Inherent Vice got recognized, though it seems like Whiplash will take this one... sure, that works.

Who Will Win: Whiplash
Who Should Win: Inherent Vice

Best Picture
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory Of Everything
Whiplash

Glad to see Selma AT LEAST get a Best Picture nomination (yes it also got a best song nod, but you know what I mean). Also was really happy to see The Grand Budapest Hotel get so many nods. Though putting American Sniper and The Theory of Everything on this list instead of Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, and Inherent Vice seems like a heresy. I don't mind seeing Boyhood or Birdman on this list too much, even if I didn't get into those movies nearly as much as most did. This category, however, seems like a two way race between Boyhood and Birdman, with no real clear winner. Personally, my money is still on Boyhood taking the Oscar (since Academy members really seem to dig the 12 year thing). I don't know... I just don't like it when movies win Oscars based more on gimmicks rather than actual filmmaking merits (like The Artist a few years back for instance). Still... could be worse. As long as American Sniper doesn't win this award, I won't be too upset.

Who Will Win: Boyhood
Who Should Win: Selma or The Grand Budapest Hotel

Here are the rest of my predictions (though not neccessarily my personal choices). Who will win? We'll find out tonight.

Best Picture: Boyhood
Best Director: Richard Linklater
Best Actor: Michael Keaton
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash
Best Animated Feature: How To Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign Film: Wild Tales
Best Documentary: Citizenfour
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Film Editing: Boyhood
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Score: The Theory Of Everything
Best Original Song: Glory
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline
Best Animated Short: Feast
Best Live Action Short: Boogaloo and Graham

Nightcrawler - Review

No, this movie isn't an X-Men spin-off... but it's still awesome!

American Sniper - Review

Well the Oscars are only a few weeks ago now, and I've spent very little time actually discussing many of the nominees, so let's take a look at American Sniper. This film is directed by Hollywood legend Clint Eastwood and based on the true story of Navy SEAL sniper Chris Kyle. For those who aren't aware, Chris Kyle became the deadliest marksman in US Military history while serving in Iraq before tragically being killed by a fellow veteran suffering from PTSD in 2013 after returning home. In addition to being nominated for multiple Oscars and becoming a massive success at the box office... American Sniper became 2014's movie that people judge you based on whether you liked it or not. Interesting... I was expecting Selma take that distinction (that's too bad, because I really liked Selma). Now I really shouldn't have to do this, but I'm going to start this review with a disclaimer. I am strictly reviewing the movie American Sniper and that alone... I'm not making any statements either the military or Chris Kyle himself. I never met the guy, I don't know what he was really like. His story certainly seems interesting and his ironic death is incredibly sad and tragic, but aside from what was stated in the movie itself... I don't have much to say about him.  And despite whatever my feelings are toward war itself, I have nothing but respect for the troops that so bravely serve and defend our country. So with that said... here's my review of American Sniper.

Chris Kyle (Bradley Cooper) was born and raised in Texas, who while deer hunting as a young boy, discovered he was a gifted marksman. A devout patriot and raised with a sense of duty, he decided to enlist in the Navy after the 1998 US Embassy bombings. He excels through the training, and eventually becomes a Navy SEAL sniper. After 9/11, he was shipped overseas to Iraq, where due to his pinpoint accuracy racks up enemy kills and protects his fellow troops from attacks. The war, however, takes a toll on his psyche, and when returning home, suffers from PTSD and finds re-adjusting to his home-life difficult. Much to the chagrin of his long suffering wife Taya (Sienna Miller) and two children, he continues to re-enlist and return to active duty overseas.

So I'm just going to come out and say this... I didn't care much for America Sniper. In fact, especially given the talent on display and a director that has proven himself time and time again, it's a shockingly inept film that fails on multiple levels and makes a number of fairly amateur mistakes. I saw this movie a few weeks ago, and I've had to spend some time thinking about exactly why it doesn't work. Is it because of the lack of solid subject matter? No, war or military films (especially those about recent events) offer plenty of themes and stories with which to work. Is it for the lack of interest? Maybe... I get the feeling that Bradley Cooper was nothing but dedicated (he also co-produced the film), though Clint Eastwood seems like he might have fallen asleep at the wheel. Was it because Chris Kyle's story just didn't have enough material for a biopic. Hmmm... I can't really answer that one right now. I haven't read his book, and like I said, my knowledge about his story is fairly limited. That said, based on what was presented here, I think maybe this material would have been better utilized as a documentary rather than a narrative. Still, you can make a good movie out of anything, so I sure somehow the movie could have worked.

American Sniper tries to be many things... a biopic, a drama, a character study, a suspense/thriller, an action movie, and a war movie... while getting virtually none of them right. The movie has been accused of being a propaganda film, but personally I don't think that's fair. Admittedly, while Clint Eastwood's political affiliations might have caused some commotion, it really does feel like he wasn't trying to make any political statements with this and rather just present the facts... and that's commendable. And it's not like every war film needs to have some overt anti-war message (or even pro-war for that matter) to be considered good. Classics like Platoon or Patton are excellent movies but don't exactly have any agendas (at least not really). So the film doesn't have a political agenda, which is fine, and instead opts to just detail Chris Kyle's personal struggles with the psychological effects of war. That sounds great in theory... it just doesn't get it right. The scenes in Iraq are so lazily directed, that they leave very little emotional impact. With one or two exceptions, they're not particularly suspenseful, and the emotional impact of these scenes is so glossed over you could practically write them out. That said, the infamous scene you've all seen in the trailer where Chris Kyle is forced to kill a young boy and his mother, and the emotional torment that followed, is one of the few somewhat effective moments. The rest just don't work all that well. There's a subplot involving a rivalry between Kyle and an enemy Iraqi sniper, that feels tacked on and extremely underdeveloped. Also, there's a story involving Kyle's unit pursing a vicious enemy known as The Butcher, a murderer who keeps the body parts of his victims. Throwing in a character that feels like a rejected 24 villain in an otherwise straightforward movie feels kind of out of left field, but I might be a little more forgiving toward that had it not felt so tacked on. Also, like many films or shows with similar subjects, the Iraqi or Middle Eastern characters are mostly portrayed as evil savages while the Americans as more upstanding... UGH!!! THIS IS ONE EXTREMELY RACIST TROPE THAT NEEDS TO GO AWAY!!! And before you give me the "But this is a true story Chris"... well, apparently A LOT of this movie was totally fabricated, or at least greatly exaggerated.

About half of the film is set in Iraq, while the rest details Chris Kyle's struggle to adjust to home life. To my biggest surprise, this is where the movie truly fails. The film's main focus is, of course, Bradley Cooper as Chris Kyle (as it should be), but his wife Taya also plays a major role in the story, but seems like she got shafted a bit. Her role is basically Chris's supportive wife struggling to care for her troubled husband. There's nothing particularly wrong with that, but she does feel like a shell of a character, and I would have liked to see a bit more from her end. Basically she shows up once in a while after Chris's time overseas, they get into an argument about him returning to active duty, he leaves for Iraq again, rinse and repeat a few more times. They're generally well-acted, Sienna Miller in particular shows some real dramatic range while Bradley Cooper gives a better than expected understated performance, even if the script doesn't give him nearly enough material to showcase any true acting ability. I really do like Bradley Cooper, but he still leaves a lot to be desired in his dramatic ability... honestly his best performances are still as Phil in The Hangover and Rocket Raccoon in Guardians of the Galaxy (I'm actually being totally serious, those two films show off his best acting chops) because he's allowed to go nuts and truly explore his characters unlike this where he isn't given much. Plus, this might seem a bit nit picky, but there's one scene in particular where Chris and Taya have what should be an important discussion while Chris consoles his crying newborn baby daughter... only any dramatic momentum is COMPLETELY undercut by the fact that Bradley Cooper is holding an obviously plastic doll instead of a real child (seriously Clint... you're an Oscar winning director, that was an Ed Wood level mistake)! Yes, the scenes of Chris Kyle struggling with with his PTSD have some emotional moments, but they're often glossed over or quickly abandoned without ever really taking the time to develop Chris Kyle as a character. Basically, it's little more than a series of tropes and war movie cliches, but with little to give them any real weight, originality, or emotional impact. Ugh... what a letdown.

I know I'm in the minority here, but American Sniper really was one of the biggest letdowns of 2014. It has all the ingredients of a well-made war film, but none come together. Maybe it's because it stands in the shadows of similar or better made war movies. If you want a better "War is Hell" movie that focuses on the exploits of a particular troop, watch Oliver Stone's Platoon. For a movie that explores the post-war effects on the soldiers that served, watch Born On The Forth of July (also by Oliver Stone) or Coming Home. Or maybe The Hurt Locker for a better "War is a Drug" movie (The Hurt Locker ain't perfect, but it's a far better made movie.) Probably the best movie to do all of these things, might still be Apocalypse Now... an insightful, thrilling, and all around brilliant war movie that will likely forever stand the test of time. American Sniper... it just comes off as empty and kind of flat... and that could not be more disappointing.

I give American Sniper 2 out of 5!